Lab-Grown Diamond Price Forecast 2026: The "Direct Sourcing" Shift

If you are a jewelry store owner in the US or Europe, you’ve noticed the trend: Retail prices for lab-grown diamonds are dropping, but your local wholesale costs aren't dropping fast enough.

In 2025, we saw a massive consolidation in the market. Entering 2026, the secret to survival for independent jewelers is simple: Protect Your Margin.

The Middleman Problem

When you buy from a local dealer in New York or LA, you are paying for their rent, their sales team, and their inventory holding costs. Typically, a stone changes hands 3-4 times before it reaches your counter.

The math is shocking:

• 1ct D VVS1 (US Wholesale): ~$450 - $550
• 1ct D VVS1 (Kunlun Factory): ~$275
• Difference: You are losing $200+ per carat to the supply chain.

Why 2026 is the Year of "Factory Direct"

With logistics becoming faster (FedEx/Brink's now delivers from Shenzhen to NY in 5 days), the barrier to entry for direct sourcing has vanished.

At Kunlun Growth, we are seeing more retailers switching to our "Just-in-Time" inventory model. They don't stock heavy inventory; they use our live list to sell to customers, then order from us.

HPHT vs. CVD Pricing Trends

In 2026, we forecast:

• HPHT (Small/Medium Sizes): Prices will stabilize. Demand for high-quality D-E color melee and 1ct stones is rising as designers reject "gray" CVD.
• CVD (Large Sizes): Prices for 3ct+ stones will become even more accessible, making large carat engagement rings the new standard.

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