Where is the lab-grown diamond industry headed? Here are my predictions.
Prediction #1: Market Share Reaches 50% by 2028
Currently, lab-grown diamonds represent ~20% of the global diamond jewelry market.
By 2028, I predict 50% market share in engagement rings (US/Europe).
Why? Generational shift. Gen Z doesn't care about "natural" vs "lab-grown."
Prediction #2: Consolidation in Manufacturing
Small HPHT factories will disappear. The survivors will be:
- Large-scale producers (10,000+ carats/month)
- Specialized niche players (colored diamonds, large stones)
Mid-sized factories (1,000-5,000 carats/month) will struggle.
Prediction #3: Retail Integration
Major jewelry chains (Signet, Tiffany) will fully embrace lab-grown.
By 2027, every major brand will have a lab-grown line.
Prediction #4: Technology Breakthroughs
New growth methods (plasma CVD, microwave HPHT) will reduce costs by another 30%.
This will enable:
- Larger stones (10ct+) at affordable prices
- Better color control (perfect pinks, blues)
- Faster growth (days instead of weeks)
Prediction #5: Regulatory Clarity
FTC will mandate clearer labeling. Terms like "synthetic" will be replaced with "lab-grown" universally.
This will reduce consumer confusion and accelerate adoption.
The next 5 years will separate winners from losers. Early adopters who build strong supply chains NOW will dominate.
What This Means for You
If you're a retailer or wholesaler, now is the time to establish relationships with reliable suppliers.
The factories that survive consolidation will have pricing power. Lock in your supply chain before it's too late.