The "Freefall" is Over. Here's Why.
For the last 18 months, retailers have held their breath. Every week brought a new, lower price list. "Why buy today," they asked, "when it will be cheaper tomorrow?"
But the data from Henan—the heart of the world's HPHT diamond production—tells a new story. We have hit the "Electricity Floor."
1. Physics vs. Economics
There is a hard limit to how cheap a lab-grown diamond can be: Energy.
Growing a 1-carat diamond takes weeks of extreme pressure (HPHT) or plasma deposition (CVD). This consumes massive amounts of electricity. In 2025, industrial electricity costs in China stabilized. You cannot negotiate with physics. If the price drops below the cost of power + raw materials (Graphite/Seed), the factory simply shuts off the machine.
2. The great "Shut-Down" of 2025
And that is exactly what happened. In late 2025, dozens of smaller, inefficient factories in China closed their doors. They could not compete at 2025 prices. This reduced the global supply glut.
Result: Supply is tightening. The "dumping" of cheap inventory is ending. The factories that remain are the giants—like Kunlun Growth's partners—who operate at scale.
3. Quality is the New Price
With base prices stabilized, the battleground has shifted to Quality.
Not all diamonds are created equal. Cheap "B-grade" stones with blue nuisance (from excess Boron) or gray tinges are still cheap. But D-Color, Eye-Clean, perfectly cut stones are seeing price increases.
Savvy designers aren't looking for the cheapest stone anymore. They are looking for the stone that won't get returned by an angry bride.
What Should You Do?
If you are a retailer or designer:
- Stop waiting. The bottom is here.
- Audit your supply. Are you buying "cheap" stones that hurt your brand?
- Go Direct. Cut out the middlemen who add zero value but 30% markup.