The past 24 months have been a rollercoaster. We've seen prices drop significantly, causing panic for some and opportunity for others. But the big question on every retailer's mind is: "Is this the bottom?"
The "Electricity Floor" Theory
Here in Henan, China (the global capital of HPHT production), we are seeing an interesting trend. The cost of rough diamonds is approaching the cost of the electricity required to grow them.
Diamond growing is energy-intensive. You can't cheat physics. Once the price hits the cost of inputs (electricity + graphite + labor), it cannot go lower without factories shutting down.
What to Expect in Q1 2026
We predict a stabilization of prices for high-quality goods (D-E Color, VVS). Why?
- Factory Consolidation: Smaller, inefficient factories are closing.
- Power Costs: Industrial electricity prices in China are stable or slightly rising.
- Demand Shift: As natural diamond supply tightens due to sanctions, more major brands are embracing LGD.
The Strategy for Retailers: Stop waiting for "cheaper". The dropped has happened. Now is the time to build relationships with stable suppliers who can guarantee consistency over price volatility.
Don't rely on spot market fluctuations. Partner with a direct source.